Airbus has stated in its 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast that long-term growth in air transport will be driven by urbanization, economic development, and increasing demand for connectivity.
The manufacturer expects the growth of small and medium-sized cities, the expansion of the middle class, and diaspora travel to create new demand between a wider range of city pairs over the next 20 years. More efficient aircraft are expected to make these routes commercially viable.
According to Airbus, global passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 3.9% through 2045, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers per year.
The company forecasts demand for 42,060 new aircraft during the period. Of this total, 19,820 aircraft will be required to replace aging fleets, while 22,240 aircraft will be needed to support growth.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to account for 81% of demand, while widebody aircraft will represent the remaining 19%. Airbus also predicts that nearly the entire global fleet will consist of new-generation aircraft by 2045.
